Market Update - 8.29.24
The summer has seen more of what we reported in April and June: very slow sales coupled with inventory rising to pre-pandemic levels.
The Months Supply of Inventory metric combines both of these trends and shows a telling story. In July, in nearly crested 12 months of inventory. This was last seen a full ten years ago in 2014 as the market then gathered momentum following the Great Recession.
(The Months Supply of Inventory is computed by dividing the current inventory of houses for sale by the pace of sales.)
Generally, 6 months of inventory is seen as a balanced market. The graph above shows that the market was balanced in 2019 and again last year in 2023. This year the pendulum has swung robustly towards a Buyers’ market.
Buyers, the few of you who are out there right now, enjoy your moment! Depending on the seller, you may be able to find good opportunities. Don’t be afraid to make a low offer and begin the sales conversation.
By the way, it looks like your greatest leverage may be in the condo market. The median sales price has hovered around 800K for homes after a short drop in 2023. 800K was the residential COVID high. But condo sales have dropped from their high of 480K to 380K.
Sellers, you do have some glimmers on the horizon. The Fed looks like it will lower rates on September 18th. We shall see. Of course it will likely be a small cut, but others may follow. Look to 2025 for a return to a more balanced market.
