Market Update 12.13.21

Looking Back

2021 began with historically low inventory.  A scant 19 homes were listed for sale in the Lake Chelan valley in January, compared with an average of 69 homes the preceding three years.

This combination of low inventory with continued high demand resulted in a drop of overall sales in 2021 and an increase in closing prices.  The number of closed sales in 2021(YTD) dropped 19% while prices rose 15%.  

Presently:

As of Dec 1, 2021, there were 32 homes for sale in the Lake Chelan valley.  The number mirrors the homes for sale a year ago at this time. This indicates 2022 will be another year of sustained low inventory.

Interestingly, pending sales jumped this November to 20 homes (up from a three year average of 11 pending homes for 2018-20). Seasonally, this is a very atypical jump. It could be explained by buyer concerns about rising interest rates.

Looking Ahead:

Looking ahead, our prediction is for continued demand in the Lake Chelan market.  Even in the face of rising interest rates, we don’t predict a discernible reduction in demand.  Additionally, inflation concerns could drive even more dollars to the Lake Chelan market as a long-term inflation hedge.  

Finally, none of the forces described above have helped with our housing crisis.  The graph below offers an example of the challenge facing our valley.  It shows the number of homes listed for sale at prices less than $500,000. 

The yearly swings up and down are due to normal seasonality.  But the larger trend line is unmistakable.  The low in 2017 was 34 homes listed for sale under $500,000.  The low presently is 4 homes.  

As we approach 2022, thank you supporting housing solutions in the Lake Chelan Valley.  The Chelan Valley Housing Trust offers a bright spot of hope on this front.